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LOW-WAGE WORK: THE BIG PICTURE Following
World War II, economic growth in the United States meant a shared prosperity
as tens of millions of American workers moved into an emerging middle
class. Starting in the mid-1970s, however, real wages stopped growing
and even declined for certain groups in the labor force. This was a
marked reversal from the postwar economic boom. In fact, the fortunes
of those in the bottom rungs of the labor market declined drastically.
Between 1973 and 1993, the real income of the lowest 20th percent of
workers fell nearly 12 percent. Today,
one out of four workers in the United States holds a job that pays less
than $8.70 an hour (around $18,100 working full-time), which is the
official poverty line for a family of four. (See Beth Shulman, The
Betrayal of Work: How Low-Wage Jobs Fail 30 Million Americans,
The New Press, New York, 2003). Most experts estimate that it takes
double that amount for families to make ends meet. (See studies by the
Economic Policy Institute and Kathryn Edin and Laura Lein in Making
Ends Meet: How Single Mothers Survive Welfare and Low-Wage Work,
(Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1997.) Low-paid U.S. workers have
worse standards of living than comparable workers in Europe or Japan.
(See Richard Freeman, ed. Working
Under Different Rules, Russell Sage Foundation, New York,
1993, for comparison of U.S. low-earners and those in other industrialized
countries.) Although the United States still leads the world in overall
prosperity and productivity, the American way of organizing work and
rewarding workers no longer provides many hardworking families a piece
of the American dream. High
school graduates have been the hardest hit over the past quarter century
of economic changes. Male high school graduates earned an average hourly
wage (in 2001 dollars) of $16.16 in 1973. Since then, their average
real wages fell by 17 percent, with the most rapid decline taking place
during the 1980s. These changes were so profound that even the extremely
tight labor markets of the late 1990s, which resulted in the lowest
unemployment rates in 30 years, only allowed these workers to recover
about one-third of their lost ground. They still face real wages markedly
lower than those earned by their counterparts 20 years earlier. (For
more information about the tight labor market of 1995-2000 and its sustainability
see Alan B. Krueger and Robert Solow, eds. The
Roaring Nineties: Can Full Employment Be Sustained, Russell
Sage Foundation, New York, 2001.) Female high school graduates wages
remained stable over the period between 1973 and 1989 and finally rose
during the tight labor market of the 1990s. Yet their average hourly
wage still remained consistently lower than their male counterparts.
(For more in-depth discussion of the impact on single mothers see Kathryn
Edin and Laura Lein in Making
Ends Meet: How Single Mothers Survive Welfare and Low-Wage Work,
Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1997; see Katherine S. Newman,
No
Shame in My Game: The Working Poor in the Inner City,
Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 1999 for an in-depth look at the difficulties
facing inner city workers in low-wage jobs.) Strong
growth has usually been associated with rising wages and declining inequality.
Yet most of the benefits of economic growth between 1973 and 2001 missed
those who needed them most. The degree of inequality in wages between
low-paid and high-paid U.S. workers grew by roughly 30 percent during
the 1980s to levels of inequality not seen since the Great Depression.
What
happened after the mid-1970s to produce these dramatic changes? The
core feature of the past quarter century has been the long-term shift
from a manufacturing to a service economy. Wal-Mart is now the largest
creator of jobs. Less than 40 years ago, one out of every three nonfarm
jobs was in the manufacturing sector. As recently as the 1970s, it provided
jobs to almost one-third of men between the ages of 25 and 54 who did
not attend college. Entering the 21st century, however, manufacturing
comprises only 16 percent of the total economy, or one out of every
six jobs, making it smaller than the retail trade industry. By the year
2008, it is estimated that it will comprise only 12 percent of the total
U.S. labor force. And
what of the future? The expanding service sector will remain the dominant
source of employment in the first decade of the century and the dominant
source of economic output in the U.S. economy. It is projected that
virtually all of the twenty-two million new jobs expected to be added
through 2010 will be in the non-manufacturing industries with retail
trade and low-end services expected to account for the large majority.
Perhaps
an even more important question, however, is what the growth in services
means for upward mobility and employment stability. With extremely flat
job hierarchies, jobs at the bottom of the service sector provide few
means to move up, effectively trapping workers in low-wage careers.
At the forefront of this industry, employing an ever larger number of
workers, is Wal-Mart. In this business model, part-time work is the
norm, schedules shift constantly, wages are low and turnover high, and
health insurance is too costly for most workers to afford, even after
long wait periods for eligibility. Until
the mid-1970s, the American labor market continued to function according
to a set of rules and norms put into place after World War II. For most
people, the typical career pattern was to enter a firm at the bottom
of a job ladder and to move up that ladder over time. Workers had a
high degree of job security because both individuals and firms made
mutual investments in each other (particularly in training). While the
old labor market did contain a "secondary labor market" that
provided unstable and low-wage employment and abided by few of the rules,
there remained a central set of norms, behaviors, and institutions that
structured the core of the labor market. The
ground rules from the late1940s to the mid 1970s included stronger regulation
of industries and of labor markets, broader acceptance of unions and
more insulation of the domestic economy from speculative international
capital flows and internal wage competition. Consequently, low-wage
workers had more bargaining power. But
by the late 1970s, the economic and institutional conditions that supported
this system changed. (See an in-depth analysis of the changes that occurred
from the 1940s to the 1990s in Frank Levy, The
New Dollars and Dreams: American Incomes and Economic Change,
Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1999.) Major shifts in the American
economy brought new pressures and challenges to companies and created
enormous incentives for companies to restructure both the way they operated
and their relationship with their employees. At the same time, social
and corporate policies undercut the bargaining power of the average
worker. Labor and economic regulation weakened. Industry began aggressively
resisting unions. A new social contract strikingly different from that
of the post-World War II economic boom evolved. The
decision to open global markets contributed to the economic pressures
that American employers have faced over the last 20 years. Trade with
less-developed countries forced American workers to compete with workers
from low-wage developing countries who earned a fraction of U.S. wages
and lacked even minimal legislative protections. Advances
in information technology (IT) also changed the workplace. Technological
changes have led to the automation of routine tasks that were previously
carried out by high school-educated American workers. Advances in IT
have made it possible to relocate data entry and the work of customer
services representatives anywhere in the world, where wages are far
below even the most modest U.S. wages. Deregulating
industries such as telecommunications, financial services, airlines,
and trucking increased price competition and intensified pressures on
firms to reduce costs. As new nonunion, lower-wage operators entered
the market, unionization rates dropped in these industries- as much
as by one-half. This erosion of power led to significantly declining
wages. The
U.S. corporate relationship with its employees has changed. Corporate
responsibility no longer requires the balancing of the interests of
employees, shareholders and other stakeholders, but merely maximizing
shareholder wealth. Healthy companies laid off workers and gone was
the rhetoric about treating employees like "family." It
is no accident that in the midst of these changes, America's poorest
workers fared worse than those in other industrialized countries. Without
institutions, laws and political allies to counterbalance these forces,
workers, especially those at the low-end had little bargaining power.
These dramatic changes in the institutional environment in which American
firms operated greatly influenced their responses to these new competitive
pressures. Prime
among these institutional changes is the well-documented weakening of
the labor movement and its lessening of a worker voice. In 1973, 24
percent of American workers were union members. That figure had declined
to 14 percent by 2002, and among private sector workers fell to nine
percent. The
changing economy significantly affected the strength of unions. The
increase in global trade and deregulation of major industries eliminated
many unionized jobs in large-scale manufacturing industries. At the
same time, the service sector that now constituted over 80% of the workforce
was largely unorganized. Among the high-school graduate workforce, unionization
rates fell by almost one-half. Yet
the wholesale assault on unions, beginning with President Reagan's firing
of the striking air traffic controllers and destruction of its union
led to its precipitous decline. All three branches of the national government
in the last 20 years have exhibited greater hostility to unions than
in earlier periods. Corporations took their cue from these government
attitudes and in the last 30 years corporations have shown intense hostility
towards their worker's attempts to form unions. As a 2000 Human Rights
Watch Report documented, "workers who try to form and join trade
unions to bargain with their employers are spied on, harassed, pressured,
threatened, suspended, fired, deported, or otherwise victimized in reprisal
for their exercise of the right to freedom of association." In
1950, the number of workers who suffered reprisals for trying to organize
a union was in the hundreds each year. By 1990, more than 20,000 workers
each year were victims of discrimination leading to back-pay orders.
Today, one out of four representation elections result in at least one
worker being illegally discharged. The
decline in union representation has reduced the ability of workers to
negotiate with managers about responses to increased competition and
to bargain over the distribution of gains from improved productivity.
As a result, employers are now able to be more aggressive in setting
wages and working conditions. Equally important to its impact on the
unionized sector is the impact of debilitated unions on the much larger
nonunion sector. With greater union density, there was a "threat
effect" or "spillover" on nonunion employers who modified
their actions either to avoid unionization or simply out of imitation.
Today most employers are free to determine their employment conditions
without fear of being organized. During
this same time, the real value of the minimum wage plummeted from $7.18
(in 2001 dollars) to $5.15, a decline of 28 percent. The decreasing
real value of the minimum wage over the last thirty years meant that
there had effectively been a deregulation of the wage-setting process.
It has allowed firms to respond to economic pressures by cutting the
real wages of their lowest-paid workers Without
counterbalancing institutions, most employers responded to increased
economic pressure by reducing their workers' wages and benefits. (For
an extensive examination of firms' responses to these new economic pressures
and the factors that influenced their responses see Eileen Appelbaum,
Annette Bernhardt, and Richard Murnane, Low-Wage
America: How Employers Are Reshaping Opportunity in the Workplace,
Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 2003.) Still other firms cut costs
by firing or "downsizing" their workforce. More than one-half
of the nations' largest corporations chose to cut costs by firing workers
in 1991 and 1992. The proportion of prime-age male workers (ages 35-54)
who were permanently displaced from their jobs almost doubled between
the 1970s and the early 1990s. This job displacement shifted more people
to the lower end of the income distribution as a majority of the displaced
workers who found jobs took pay cuts. (See William J. Baumol, Alan S.
Blinder, and Edward N. Wolff, Downsizing
in America: Reality, Causes, and Consequences, Russell Sage
Foundation, New York, 2003, for a complete description of the causes
and effects of downsizing during this period.) Another
corporate strategy to cut costs has been the continual shift of costs
and risks to workers by increasing health insurance premiums and deductibles
and substituting pension plans in which the employer ensured workers
a certain benefit upon retirement to ones in which benefits were dependent
on market returns. These
economic, corporate and institutional changes created poorer quality
jobs and worsened long-term wage growth for many workers. Median wage
growth by mid-career fell by 21 percent in recent years, and the distribution
of the remaining gains has become sharply more unequal. As a result,
the heart of the middle class has been hollowed out. There are now 40
percent fewer workers in the central part of the wage growth distribution
than there were three decades ago. (See Annette Bernhardt, Martina Morris,
Mark S. Hancock, and Marc A. Scott in Divergent Paths: Economic Mobility
in the New American Labor Market, Russell Sage Foundation, New York,
2001, for an in depth analysis of the changes in mobility in the lower
end of the labor market.) But
it has been those in the lower part of the labor market that have suffered
the most severe consequences. Trapped in a handful of industries such
as retail trade, personal services, entertainment and recreation and
business and repaid services, the prevalence of low-wage careers has
more than doubled. These industries offer few opportunities for wage
growth, promotion or training, which makes it difficult for workers
to escape their grasp. (See Timothy J. Bartik, Jobs
for the Poor: Can Labor-Demand Policies Help?, Russell Sage
Foundation, New York, 2001, for discussion of job training and its impact
on low-wage workers.) Career or skill ladders, never common in this
sector, are even less common now and investment in training ranks the
lowest among all industries. As
more and more workers are increasingly cut off from the chance of ever
attaining a stable well-paying job, Harvard economist Richard Freeman
warns of an emerging apartheid economy. "Left unattended, the new
inequality threatens us with a two-tiered society
in which the
successful upper and upper-middle classes live fundamentally different
from the working classes and the poor. Such an economy will function
well for substantial numbers, but will not meet our nation's democratic
idea of advancing the well being of the average citizen. For many it
promises the loss of the 'American dream'." (Freeman, 1997, p.
3). While
most employers chose the low-road model of freezing wages, reducing
benefits, firing workers, using temporary workers, or relocating jobs
to another part of the country or abroad, some employers have developed
other ways to improve their financial performance by innovating their
services, improving quality and training, and empowering their workers.
(See David Ellwood, Rebecca M. Blank, Joseph Blasi, Douglas Kruse, William
a. Niskanen and Karen Lynn-Dyson, A
Working Nation: Workers, Work, and Government in the New Economy,
Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 2000, for more in depth discussion
of high-road strategies.) Experience
in other countries suggests that managers will be more inclined to choose
the high road if there is a higher minimum wage, which sets a floor
below which wages cannot be pushed and forces them to think more creatively
about how to keep firms competitive. Perhaps most important of all,
managers are more likely to choose the high road when a national culture
treats driving down wages as unacceptable behavior, instead of rewarding
such managers with ever more lucrative pay packages. In
the past 30 years our nation has made choices that resulted in declining
economic opportunity for an increasing number of Americans. Although
individual corporate decisions may make perfect sense for the individual
actors, they may not be good for workers or our society, a classic problem
in a political economy. Employers have wide discretion in how they respond
to this changing economy. Either
we continue to stand by as millions of jobs fail to provide the basics
of a decent life or we can decide that it is untenable for the richest
country in the world to allow nearly one-third of working families with
children to earn less than the amount needed to maintain a basic standard
of living. Not acting threatens the social fabric of our society and
the stability of our democracy. History has repeatedly shown that unregulated
markets do not produce optimal outcomes for both workers and firms.
We can make better choices that will ensure the long-term economic future
of our society and provide a fair share to working Americans and their
families.
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